Friday, December 25, 2015

You can't make this s*#! up

If you couldn't note the sarcasm from the blog title, the weather forecast is not good once more. As we fished today, the long, high, white cloud rolled from the southwest. "Ah, the front must be moving in early", I said to Amelia & Mitch. It was 5pm as the wind was howling and the sun became intermittent. "24 hours until it rains." I've become pretty damned good at weather forecasting here. The long white cloud that the Maori name for New Zealand is named for (Aotearoa), begins drifting across the sky about 24 hrs before the front hits. Originally, the front was due Monday afternoon, so my forecasting by clouds was curious. Then we got home to see the new forecast, I was bang on (hooray for me):

"A cold front in the Tasman Sea is expected to move onto the southern South Island on late Sunday to Monday morning, then become slow-moving for a time, before sweeping quickly over the country on Tuesday.
A strong moist northwesterly flow ahead of this front is forecast to bring very heavy rain to Fiordland on Sunday and Monday, and to Westland from Sunday night through to Tuesday. In Fiordland, rainfall totals could reach 150-200mm, while the Westland ranges could receive 300-450mm late Sunday and Monday and possibly a further 100-150mm on Tuesday. Heavy rain is also expected to spill over into the headwaters of the Canterbury and Otago lakes and rivers.
While these regions are no strangers to heavy rain, this is shaping up to be a particularly significant event. People in these areas should stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings. On the West Coast, rivers and streams are likely to rise very rapidly, and there may be slips and localised flooding which could make driving hazardous. In eastern areas, where little rain may fall, the main rivers that have their sources in the Southern Alps can be expected to rise significantly."

Given the ground is saturated here, 650 mm of rain in 30 hours could raise a couple streams... :)  You never know though!

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